Adam@Greeks.live|Jul 13, 2026 08:32
The market is starting to rebound, and the rebound since July has entered a tug of war in the past week. The IV of the main term has significantly decreased, indicating the overall market expectation for low volatility.
From the trend of IV in the past three months, it can be seen that a rapid decline in early June briefly lifted IV, which is currently known as the panic index - the faster the decline, the higher the IV. Once the market downturn stops, IV will quickly fall, which is highly correlated with the level of panic in the market.
The increase in the proportion of put transactions and the sustained low IV are typical IV characteristics of bear markets. This situation cannot be broken by a single bullish candlestick. We can clearly say that now is a good time to sell calls until two large bullish candlesticks end this trend.
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