TraderS | 缺德道人|Jul 13, 2026 08:26
From a narrative perspective, the same fact can be explained as bullish during the uptrend and bearish during the downtrend.
for example
Rental computing power is called "new cloud services and monetization channels" when it rises, and "excess computing power" when it falls.
Samsung's profits exceeded expectations, with a rise known as "AI demand explosion" and a decline known as "intensified competition and cyclical peak".
When Hynix goes public in the United States, it is called "global revaluation" when it rises and "massive financing, increased supply, and arbitrage market" when it falls.
But in fact, the underlying price still depends on the true components of valuation, position, and liquidity.
Because the actual market transactions are not fundamentals, but derivatives of fundamentals.
Once entering the stage of deleveraging logic, the price will inevitably fall to the point where someone cannot bear to sell out before it ends. The news of someone jumping off a building in South Korea went viral today, but it was actually an inevitable event that could have been foreseen a few weeks ago.
During a sharp decline, the price is not responsible for discovering the value of the enterprise. The price is first responsible for finding a level of leverage that can be liquidated.
When the decline in net worth triggers financing recovery, risk control lines, stop loss rules, or redemption pressure, the basis for selling is no longer valuation, but cash demand. So the highest quality and most liquid assets are often sold first because they are the easiest to monetize.
The real stop to the decline is not waiting for the story to be proven false, but rather for the market's micro reactions to begin to change:
1. The same bearish sentiment reappears, but the stock price no longer hits a new low
2. After the positive news is announced, there will be no more high opening and low closing
3. The leader stabilizes before the sector, and then high elasticity varieties stop replenishing the decline
4. After the massive panic, the second bottoming out transaction significantly shrank
5. Analysts are still lowering short-term numbers, but stock prices are no longer responsive
6. After passive deleveraging ends, stocks will resume pricing based on company differences, rather than the entire sector hitting the limit down indiscriminately
So the bottom is not guessed, it comes out. People who are eager to buy the bottom may be trapped halfway up the mountain, and V may not be as delicious as it is in their mouths.
Specifically, on the Q3 stocks of Hynix Solana: SKHYhSjuRWHkiqq8eRKBtPABgJSkd7ytQV14i9E, the first panic level has been reached today, and a lot of leverage has been applied. If we can test the previous low again later, or shake and digest above the cutting line of 1.5-1.7 million Korean won (1000-1130U), that will be the end.
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