Market analysis on July 13th BTC is currently around 628200, with a 24-hour high of 643900 and a low of 626400. It has clearly fallen from above 64000 during the day Technical aspect is somewhat lacking The price fell below 637900 on the 1-hour EMA20 and 638300 on the EMA60, as well as 637400 on the 4-hour EMA20 and 628800 on the EMA60 The DIF of 4-hour MACD is 134, DEA is 270, and the green bar continues to enlarge. The short-term downward structure has not ended yet The 1-hour RSI has reached 26, and the 4-hour RSI is at 39, indicating short-term oversold, so the current position is not suitable for chasing short positions The 1-hour Bollinger Bands have fallen below 63200 yuan, and the price has already dropped outside the lower limit. It is easier to make a comeback later and then move in the same direction The contract funding rate is still positive at 0.0048%, with a position of approximately 1.945 billion US dollars. When the price falls, long positions are not completely cleared, and attention should be paid to long stop loss and trampling The latest trading day of ETF was July 10th, with a net inflow of $90.4 million. However, in the first two days, there were outflows of $84.9 million and $95.3 million respectively, indicating that institutional funds have not been continuously flowing back Macroscopically, the 10-year US Treasury bond has risen to 4.578%, and the US dollar index is at 100.96, indicating that external pressure on risk assets is still present The biggest hotspot in the past 24 hours has been the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, with the United States once again striking Iranian targets, intensifying disputes over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent and WTI crude oil both rising nearly 4% in the market The increase in oil prices will amplify inflation expectations, and the market is beginning to trade on the risk of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates or even turning to rate hikes. The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds has risen to a high of over a year, and this Tuesday's US CPI is the next macro focus The Asian market is also weakening, with the Nikkei falling more than 2% during trading and the Korean Composite Index falling more than 7% at one point. Risk aversion is the external reason for BTC's decline today On the chain, a whale sold 13708 ETH, which was exchanged for 393.4 BTC, with a scale of about 25 million US dollars. This belongs to the relative strength trading of ETH/BTC, which has some acceptance of BTC, but the magnitude is not enough to reverse the market The difficulty of BTC mining has been reduced by 5% to 127.17T, and the marginal pressure on miners has eased, which is favorable for the medium and long term, with limited short-term impact The total market value of stablecoins decreased by about $7.7 billion in June, marking the largest monthly drawdown since Terra, and overall market liquidity is still contracting The selling pressure of short-term holders on the chain has cooled down, but it has not been confirmed whether institutional funds can continue to flow back On the clearing chart, after BTC fell below 61000, mainstream exchanges accumulated long clearing pressure of approximately $501 million, while above 65000 there was short clearing pressure of approximately $882 million The current market is at 62800 yuan, so we will directly chase short. We will consider adding short positions when we draw back 63200 to 63800 yuan The first target is 62640 yuan, and after falling below it, the target is 61000 yuan Stop loss above 64400 yuan