Phyrex|Jul 12, 2026 17:27
The current price of CLUSDT is already $73.7. The probability of it surging to $75 when CME opens on Monday is quite high, unless Trump pulls a TACO in the next few hours. I've set up short positions at $75 and $78. Friday's close was $71, so Monday shouldn't be outrageously high. I feel like the $78 price might not get hit, but I'll leave it there just in case. I closed 80% of my previous short positions because I was worried about a rebound on Monday.
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalated a bit over the weekend, mainly around the Strait of Hormuz. Honestly, I think Iran is going too far this time. They’ve been trying to charge fees for the Strait of Hormuz, which is just rogue behavior. If a full-scale war breaks out, oil prices could very well return to $90. But if it’s just more provocations, $80 should be about right.
Let’s see how it plays out. From my personal perspective, I still don’t think the U.S. and Iran are willing to enter a full-scale war again, especially for the U.S. right now. Unless it’s a lightning war, it would be bad for inflation and the midterm elections. Let’s hope for world peace.
On Sunday, Bitcoin doesn’t seem to have been affected by the U.S.-Iran conflict, which is quite surprising. In the past, bitcoin:native would usually dip first as a precaution. Investors still seem pretty confident around the $60,000 level. The $61,000 buy and $65,000 sell orders I placed on Friday should have successfully collected premiums.
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