SpaceX $SPCX closed at 145.3 this week, which is honestly pretty ugly. This means that basically everyone who bought in the secondary market after the IPO is now at a loss. If the stock continues to drop at this pace next week, breaking the IPO price could happen in no time. The biggest highlight for SpaceX next week will likely be the scheduled launch on Thursday morning Beijing time, which will take place after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday. Since the booster failure during Starship 12's test flight meant it wasn’t a complete success, this flight is critical to redeeming that. If the flight succeeds, it could boost the stock price on sentiment. But if it fails, breaking the IPO price might become inevitable. That said, success and failure aren’t binary outcomes. If we define full success as completing all stages and failure as an explosion, there are several intermediate outcomes of partial success in between. What’s even more concerning is that Starship 13 is essentially a copy of Starship 12, with no new narrative. In other words, a successful launch is expected, but a failure would mean two consecutive booster failures for the V3 configuration. This could shake confidence in the NASA contract, the Starlink V3 deployment timeline, and even the entire narrative around Musk’s 100-terawatt milestone in his compensation package. From a risk-reward perspective, the upside is small, but the downside is huge. Additionally, the exact timing of the rocket launch depends on factors like weather and technical readiness, so there’s a chance of last-minute adjustments. If there’s a technical delay, the stock price could also take a hit. That said, given the technical preparations and Musk’s awareness of how crucial this is for the now-public SpaceX, it’s highly likely they’ll double-check everything to aim for a successful launch. But the laws of physics don’t bend to human will, and ground tests can’t cover all aspects of flight dynamics. Until there’s a definitive success, no one can guarantee anything. Before the launch, there might even be some risk-off selling, causing the stock to dip. In short, until Starship achieves complete success, SpaceX’s stock price will remain under pressure. A successful launch could trigger a short-term rebound, but when the August unlock window arrives, what’s bound to happen will still happen.