Contentious soft forks face an extremely steep uphill battle. 1. They first need enough support to activate. (BIP-110 currently has, generously, around 1% voluntary miner signaling.) 2. Even if it appears likely to activate, it still has to avoid a user-rejected soft fork. If a meaningful group commits to continuing under the original consensus rules, activation could produce a chain split between Bitcoin (the original consensus rules) and Bitcoin Jr. (the new consensus rules). 3. The possibility of point two makes point one even less likely. The credible threat of a chain split forces miners to consider whether signaling for the soft fork could leave them supporting a disputed chain with weaker economic backing.(Joe Burnett, MSBA)