$12 Soybeans May Mark 2H's Do-or-Die for Agriculture The direction of the agriculture sector in 2H could pivot on $12-a-bushel resistance in soybeans. Will the market sustain above this threshold, or drop below $10 as in 2024-25? My bias leans to the latter and the graphic shows a top reason why -- massive supply from Brazil. China is buying additional soybeans from the US, but they appear more political than economic and may encourage other buyers to source beans from Brazil. Global soybean stocks-to-use near 30% is ample and typically associated with price pressure. Rain makes grain, and the Corn Belt growing season has had plenty of it, which should be a top pressure factor for corn and soybeans in 2H. December corn peaked near $5.06 a bushel in May and set a life-of-contract low near $4.25 at the end of June. I see risks skewed below $4 vs. above $5. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/thwmfikgzaip {BI COMD} #soybeans #corn #wheat #grains #agriculture @Bloomberg(Mike McGlone)