Before the CPI data release, both bulls and bears are staying put, playing dead! The U.S. CPI data will be released next Monday at 8:30 PM Beijing time. Over the weekend, Bitcoin's price is moving in a narrow range, behaving like a stablecoin! With no major action in the market, let’s take the chance to rest and avoid trading. Let’s do a quick analysis of Bitcoin’s price movement before and after the CPI data release. The market expects June CPI YoY at 3.8%, with core CPI expected at 2.9%. **Scenario 1:** CPI comes in lower than expected (<3.5%) → Breakout upward - **Direction:** Break above 64.7K, target 65.7K → 67.3K. - **Logic:** Rate cut expectations heat up, USD weakens, risk assets rebound. - **Trigger signal:** A strong bullish candle with high volume holding above 64.7K. **Scenario 2:** CPI meets expectations (3.5%-3.8%) → Sideways consolidation - **Direction:** Continue to range between 62-65K. - **Logic:** Data aligns with expectations, no new direction. - **Trigger signal:** Low-volume doji or small-bodied candles. **Scenario 3:** CPI exceeds expectations (>3.8%) → Pullback downward - **Direction:** Pull back to 62K → 60K. - **Logic:** Rate hike expectations intensify, USD strengthens, risk assets face pressure. - **Trigger signal:** A strong bearish candle with high volume breaking below 63K. According to Polymarket data, the market is pricing in about a 61% probability of Bitcoin reaching 65K in July, but only a 33% chance of hitting 67.5K: the market hasn’t fully priced in a “CPI bullish breakout” scenario. Personally, I lean toward the second scenario: CPI data meets expectations, Bitcoin fluctuates up and down, then continues to rebound upward. Bulls won’t give up until they test the 68K area. After that, once the excitement is over, Bitcoin’s price will likely drop back for a correction and broader consolidation, targeting around 60K first. What do you think is the most likely scenario for Bitcoin after the CPI data release?