水博乱乱|7月 12, 2026 10:29
Today's Market Update
The weekend's movement... really makes me lose the motivation to write anything...
The candlestick chart is calm, and the on-chain activity is equally quiet.
There was just a small wave of selling last Friday, with long-term holders realizing losses of about $460 million. A batch of funds that bought in around $10K last year decided to sell and exit.
But it stopped on Saturday, without continuation. Very few coins were transferred to exchanges on Saturday. So this weekend was truly calm.
At the same time, spot trading volume on exchanges was also very low... Combined with the positive gamma effect near $64K, volatility was suppressed. (Chart 1) With spot trading already low, the impact of positive gamma becomes even more pronounced. Visually, it looks like the price is being repeatedly pulled back and forth, oscillating around $64K.
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Order Book (Chart 2)
The entire order book range hasn't changed much compared to Friday...
The aggressive low-buy range given on Friday ($63K–$63.5K), which had a large number of contract orders, managed to hold up during the weekend's low liquidity...
But now the highs are continuously dropping, and the overall market sentiment is bearish...
It looks like the real test for this area will come during the liquidity vacuum early Monday morning (and during the previous CME opening time on Monday mornings, though CME now operates on weekends, many algorithms still follow the old opening schedule).
So early Monday morning, pay close attention to whether the $63K–$63.5K contract orders get taken out...
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Heatmap Model (Chart 3)
There's no heatmap here yet. So it's just suitable for intraday trading for now. There's no space for swing entries here. Swing trades should still look for opportunities near $65K or between $61K–$62K.
Currently, the whale order of 1,300+ spot coins has been re-listed at $61K. So when the price drops below $62K, the heatmap will likely reappear. That’s when you can start watching for swing long opportunities.
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Liquidity (Chart 4)
Still consistent with Friday... Basically, it's still $63K or $65K. Watch for opportunities early Monday morning...
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So there's not much of a plan for today; it's still similar to Friday.
For the $63K–$63.5K range, don't focus on the upper part anymore. $63.6K has already been repeatedly tested over the weekend. Early Monday morning, focus on the lower range for low-buy opportunities (around $63K).
For high-sell opportunities, still watch $65K. After it spikes, aim for an SFP at $64.6K. If it recovers, you can enter.
For swing low-buy opportunities, wait for the price to drop below $62K and observe the competition around the $61K whale order.
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