Next up Iran announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz Mei Yi has started working again, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again, but the market has become desensitized Against the backdrop of Iran announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz early this morning, I don't see a panic surge in market prices. On the contrary, the price list remains stable, indicating an extreme "desensitization" in the market. Why? Let's take a look: 1. Fundamentals: Since the announcement of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of the US Iran War, which lasted for over 100 days, it was initially the most severe situation. Due to the transportation of oil and the lack of a buffer period for oil facilities, crude oil was caught in a dilemma and skyrocketed from 65 to around 120 in an instant. But over time, crude oil buyers and sellers do not want to be locked in by a single channel, so they have started various alternative paths, such as the Saudi expansion of the Red Sea oil pipeline a few days ago, and the dual channel management proposed by Oman and Iran in recent days. All of these are actually alleviating the single impact of the closure of the strait. This indicates that Iran's announced closure is actually only aimed at the channels within its territorial waters. As long as the intermediate channels flow out, crude oil can still be transported out. This is a highly restrained performance, after all, Iran's new president is in power and still needs a tough attitude domestically. We should also leave room for maneuver when dealing with foreign affairs to avoid a full-scale attack by the United States. 2. Mid to long term perspective: diminishing geopolitical marginal effects, cooling is highly probable The consensus logic in the market now is that as long as it does not affect the oil production facilities themselves, a simple threat of waterway blockade is a 'wolf's call'. Both the US and Iran are currently walking a tightrope - the US military is conducting targeted strikes without a full-scale invasion, while Iran is verbally tough and precisely controlling the intensity of its strikes. Considering the current political pressures within both sides (such as the US election cycle and the transition of Iran's new leadership), local friction has become normalized, but avoiding losing control and dragging into a full-scale war is a tacit understanding between both sides. The subsequent situation is likely to gradually cool down in this carpet like friction, as no one can afford the economic cost of the Middle East turmoil. 3. Regarding the market: Crude oil is no longer sensitive to the closure of the Taiwan Strait trading channel, and it is only a small friction in the future. The price is likely to remain in a low range (WTI65-80) and fluctuate. To achieve a significant increase, unless there is a practical escalation of the conflict, such as an oil field being bombed, short-term trading should still maintain this range to do low and high. But gold is different, and it may continue to regain its pricing that reflects systemic risks (including US dollar credit and Middle East turmoil) in the future. The deeply adjusted gold is now strongly supported, and the restructuring of the global order has a clear supporting significance for gold. So, the current verbal war is just superficial, it's all just a small fuss. Market funds are smart, and smart money will send signals on the market. The above is a personal trading review and market logic deduction, and does not constitute any direct investment advice WTI CL OIL