Murphy
Murphy|Jul 11, 2026 02:02
Looking at the chip structure, the current situation is very similar to October 2022 (right before the FTX collapse). In both cases, chips are highly concentrated within a specific range, while the chip bars in other areas barely exceed 200k. For example, right now, in the 59k-63k range, there are 1.82M $BTC piled up. Similarly, in 2022, it was even more concentrated, with 2.37M $BTC stacked in the 18k-20k range. This indicates that a large amount of active chips have changed hands here. The more chips accumulate, the stronger the support effect; even if the range is temporarily broken, as long as the concentration zone remains intact, the price can bounce back soon after—like the pull of a magnet. Even a black swan event as impactful as the FTX collapse didn’t deeply break through this zone. That’s because a solid foundation had already been established in the 18k-20k range. As for why the current accumulation isn’t as high as in 2022? The main reason is that nearly 550k $BTC’s liquidity is locked in the 83k-84k range, sitting in Coinbase wallets. So, the current 1.82M $BTC is already quite significant. But the biggest difference is: in 2022, there were more profitable positions at the $6,000-$10,000 bottom. Now, there are more trapped positions at $65,000-$92,000. This doesn’t have much impact on the formation of the bottom, though. After all, those who needed to sell have mostly sold already. Those who didn’t sell when they had unrealized profits are even less likely to sell now. However, under this structure, when the market returns to an upward trend in the future, it might face considerable resistance.
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