Last two weeks, I said a sentence in three spaces: If you want to understand the current market situation, you need to first understand the 519 in 2021. At this moment, whether it's stocks or coins, it's just like at that time What exactly happened on May 19th, 2021? First, let's talk about the background. The bull market in 2021 is essentially a leveraged bull caused by the massive release of water by central banks after the COVID-19 epidemic; But at the same time, it is also the first cycle in which DeFi has truly become the mainstream of the market. BTC and ETH are surging with a group of core DeFi coins. Basically, major exchanges actively list DeFi coins. Storing mining coins, such as CHIA and FIL, is thriving. ETH、BSC、 The wavefield flies almost three lines in unison. From November 2020 to May 2021, the market has hardly experienced any significant pullback. But the week of 519 was a turning point for the entire bull market. BTC fell from $59600 to $31300. ETH has been halved from $4300 to $2200. 700000 people were liquidated. The OI of the entire network contract decreased by 60% overnight. This is a real violent deleveraging. What is the trigger for 2/519? 519 itself is not caused by a single event, but by a series of events triggering a mandatory clearance. Macroscopically, there have been increasing voices questioning the rise in inflation and the peak of US economic growth since May. On May 12th, Elon Musk, the strongest challenger in the previous round, announced that Tesla would temporarily suspend accepting BTC payments. On May 13th, Binance was reported by the media to be under investigation by DOJ/IRS. On May 18, the China Banking Association, the Payment Clearing Association and the Internet Finance Association issued a document reiterating that financial institutions and payment institutions should not provide encryption related services. Note that this is not a so-called 'seven ministries joint venture', but an industry document from the three major associations, but at that time the market was already fragile enough, and this policy signal was enough to ignite. On May 21st, the Financial Commission of the State Council of China further clarified the crackdown on BTC mining and trading activities. At the same time, the chain was not idle either. Venus Protocol experienced a significant liquidation and bad debt event. In my impression, this should have been one of the largest protocol bad debts in DeFi history at that time. This series of events accurately hit the main trend of the market at that time: BTC、ETH、 Exchange leverage DeFi、BSC farm， And all the high beta terminals that they detach outward. The transmission path is very clear: BTC/ETH fell in the parent market → Decrease in collateral value → CEX Contract Strong Leveling DeFi lending clearing → Liquidity mining explosion → The end of the split disk loses its connection to the disk 519 is not 'down'. 519 was a strong flat overnight, followed by a continuous sharp decline. I have a particularly deep memory because that day I went out for a dinner party and had diarrhea. I was in the bathroom holding my phone and witnessed the entire cascade clearing process Almost all exchanges are down The price was directly smashed through by forced leveling And before all of this happened, there was already a very clear expectation of upstream liquidity instability 3/US stock market 623, at this moment, just as it was then and then Two weeks ago, all those who clamored that the US stock market's AI/semiconductor was "bullish on human civilization" fell silent. Just like the cryptocurrency circle five years ago. That week, three things happened first: The price conflict between MU and Apple's supply chain has come to the forefront; Meta announces rental of computing power; SK Hynix announces large-scale production expansion. External variables refer to the ambiguous possibility of interest rate hikes and policy uncertainty released by Walsh after taking office. The results are also very familiar: The main AI/semiconductor companies have almost collectively fallen to near the bottom of the monthly line, marking the first time in several months. At first glance, it seems that this has nothing to do with 519. But in fact, the logic is completely the same. The uncertainty of the macro direction shift is beginning to propagate upstream of the AI/semiconductor split disk, giving a signal of upstream liquidity contraction. BTC/Exchanges/DeFi Liquidity Centers Crackdown vs CAPEX's distribution expectation of 'rarity is precious' has been reversed Essentially, they are all expected fractures of upstream liquidity in the Ponzi structure That is to say: Gambling tycoon/ecosystem rapidly expanding DeFi infrastructure vs Prioritize the allocation of CAPEX gambling to the "neck card" section The theoretical foundations of these two speculative expectations are beginning to be broken. At that time, major mining companies had to go abroad. Now, HBM giants have to expand production. On the surface, these are all positive factors: additional investment, expansion of production capacity, and long-term growth. But from a disk perspective, this is a typical signal of scarcity narrative entering the capital expenditure cycle. Convert the current high valuation into new supply; Promise future growth with new supply; Prove the current high valuation with future growth. This is a typical split disk logic. When the upstream feels' expensive ', it means it is no longer' urgent '. The neck premium is gone. Because they directly inserted the Yeke membrane. When 'supply scarcity' enters' supply response ', narrative premiums will begin to return to cyclical commodity valuations. As people began to realize back then, liquidity mining is no longer sufficient. APY proves the bankruptcy of demand. CAPEX proves that the requirement has been challenged. The only difference is: 519 is instant settlement. 623 is a relatively slow repricing. 4/More importantly, what happened afterwards? 519 is not the end of the market. On the contrary, BTC reached a new high of $69000 at the end of 2021. So looking at the situation with a keen eye, it is highly unlikely that the US AI/semiconductor market will immediately enter a bear market. But the more important issue is not whether there is a market trend. The more important issue is: After 519, what has become of the market? After 519, there was a very clear mainline migration in the cryptocurrency industry: BTC and ETH no longer continue to lead the gains, but instead fluctuate repeatedly; The indiscriminate rise of DeFi sector has ended, and large-scale intermittent crashes and explosions have begun to occur; The focus of funds has shifted from swaps, lending, and liquidity mining to GameFi, NFTs, and the new L1 ecosystem; Axie's four piece chain game "Crazy Rich" set, along with new public chains such as AVAX and Solana, has captured almost the entire market attention. in other words: After 519, there was a bull market. The bull market gameplay of the first half has ended. Similarly, if the absolute guiding role of CAPEX in downstream market performance cannot be further confirmed and strengthened in the short term; If the market cannot re establish a consensus on the idea that 'neck tightening equals easy pulling'; So the consensus will naturally shift in another direction: The plate is small and easy to pull. And just as GameFi is essentially a low-cost, highly replicable, and artificially manufactured replica of DeFi - even until 2023, there will still be a huge number of blockchain game projects on the market, far exceeding any project category—— Those that are called high-tech but have actual technological barriers close to small household appliances will become more easily chosen by speculative investors. For example, robots. Easy to replicate Easy to get started " Low threshold Low market value These things are not related to the future of JB humanity. But they represent better secondary market odds. Of course, the more likely direction for undertaking is actually crypto. Because it also caters to market speculation sentiment, crypto, as a type of speculative target, is a dimensional blow to the entire stock market in terms of cost, control, threshold, and dissemination efficiency. After the funds are diverted from the previous US semiconductor mainline, whether it goes to robotics, peptides, small cap technology, or returns to the cryptocurrency circle, they are essentially competing in the same secondary hot money pool No one is superior to anyone else The only logic is the odds. Next, there will be more and more sharp rises and falls. The rotation of the plates will become faster and faster. Grass heroes will continue to emerge. The market consensus will become increasingly divided. The second half may not necessarily be a good thing for the future of humanity. But for those who are good at PVP, it must be a good thing