吴说区块链|Jul 10, 2026 13:13
DWF Ventures' research report points out that the user structure of prediction markets has significantly changed since 2024. Early users, who primarily traded based on information advantages and strong convictions, are being diluted by a larger group of retail investors motivated by entertainment and high-odds returns. The article states that the share of information-based trading categories like politics, elections, and economics on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi has dropped from around 73% and 96% of trading volume during the 2024 U.S. election to less than 20% and 5% currently, while the share of sports and parlay trading has increased. DWF Ventures believes that the RFQ (Request for Quote) parlay model involves information asymmetry, which could steer prediction markets away from their role as "truth engines." However, higher entertainment-driven trading volumes might also bring deeper liquidity and a broader user base.
https://(wublock123.com)/news/dwf-ventures-predicts-entertainment-shift-reduces-political-info-trading-64392
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