看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Jul 10, 2026 07:35
Changxin Storage has officially entered the Sci Tech Innovation Board, and this matter cannot be viewed solely as an A-share IPO. It is more like a signal that the global storage industry has entered a new stage. In the past, when it came to storage, the market mainly looked at three companies: Samsung SK Hynix. Micron. These three companies basically determine the supply, price, and cycle of DRAM. But now, Changxin Storage is going public, which means that Chinese DRAM players are truly standing at the forefront of the capital market. This is not a small matter for the entire storage industry. The most important label for Changxin is not the four words' domestic substitution '. But what it does is DRAM. DRAM is one of the most core categories in storage. Mobile phones, computers, servers, and AI data centers all rely on it. Especially after the emergence of AI, the market has rediscovered something: Computing power is not limited to GPUs. After the GPU, HBM, DRAM, SSD, packaging, and power are also required. If there is no storage, the AI server cannot run. So the timing of Changxin's IPO is very delicate. It happened at a time when global storage was being re priced. Recently, there has been significant volatility in the storage sectors of the US and South Korean stocks. Micron SanDisk、 Samsung and SK Hynix have both undergone significant adjustments. On the surface, it appears that the market is concerned about AI hardware rising too much and is starting to kill valuations. But at a deeper level, the market is asking again: How long can the demand for AI last? Can HBM and DRAM prices continue to rise? Will CapEx, a major manufacturer, slow down? Is storage entering a new cycle again? These issues determine the valuation of US and Korean stock storage. Now that Changxin has entered, it means that China has also joined this global storage pricing game. This matter has two sides. In the short term, the listing of Changxin may not necessarily be favorable for Samsung, Hynix, and Micron. Because the market will start to worry about: Will China's DRAM production capacity expand rapidly? Will the future impact prices? Will it escalate global competition like new energy and electric vehicles? That's also why overseas funds are starting to discuss the risk of 'Chinese storage competition'. Previously, people were worried about the cycle. Now there is another question: Will China's supply change the industry landscape? However, from another perspective, Changxin is not immediately capable of disrupting global storage. Storage is not an assembly industry. It combines craftsmanship, yield, equipment, customer certification, capital expenditure, and years of technical accumulation. Especially for high-end AI storage like HBM, the threshold is even higher. So in the short term, don't think of Changxin as' immediately blasting Samsung Hynix '. A more reasonable understanding is: It will first increase its market share in the mid to low end and some domestic supply chains. Slowly move towards high-end DRAM, LPDDR, server memory, and HBM. This process will be very long. So when I look at Changxin's IPO, the core is not how much it rose on the day of listing. But it depends on what it does after fundraising. If the money is mainly invested in advanced processes, capacity expansion, HBM packaging, and server DRAM, then it is not an ordinary IPO. It is a signal that China's storage industry continues to increase its investment. This is a positive sentiment for A-share semiconductors. But for global storage giants, it is a long-term variable. 7/In the future, the storage industry will become more and more like a combination of two logics: On one hand, there is a growing demand brought by AI. On the other hand, there are supply changes brought by China. When demand is strong, everyone goes up. But once demand slows down or Chinese supply continues to expand, price pressure will reappear. This is the cruelest part of storage: It has both technological growth attributes and strong cyclical attributes. When it comes to rising, talk about AI. When it falls, talk about inventory and production capacity. 8/Changxin Storage's IPO is not just a story of the first domestic DRAM stock. What it truly represents is: The global storage industry has entered the stage of "Chinese players joining the table" from the pricing of Samsung, Hynix, and Micron. In the short term, this is a major event for A-share semiconductors. In the long run, it will become an increasingly unavoidable variable in the global DRAM supply pattern.
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