7.10 Market Analysis BTC just broke through 64000, and I'm still looking for a rebound. The direction is bullish, but I don't recommend chasing directly around 64000 Macroscopically, there is no particularly loose policy. The latest meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve show that there are significant internal differences in the direction of inflation and interest rates, and expectations of interest rate cuts have not been fully confirmed yet The 10-year US Treasury bond is around 4.55%, and the US dollar index is around 100.94, which still exerts pressure on BTC. Therefore, it is more like a liquidity repair now, not a comprehensive bull market The recent hot topic is mainly the fluctuation of the US Iran situation, with oil prices and US bond yields easily continuing to fluctuate. However, BTC can still hold on to 60000 under these bearish conditions, indicating that it is still possible to undertake at a low level ETF funds have not fully strengthened, with a net inflow of $265 million on July 6th, a net inflow of $21.5 million on July 7th, an outflow of $84.9 million on July 8th, and another outflow of $95.3 million on July 9th. Institutional funds are still watching as they go Technically speaking, BTC is currently around 63800, with a 1-hour RSI of 67, a 4-hour RSI of 60, and a daily RSI of 53. Overall, it is bullish, but it is already a bit hot in the short term The price is above the 1-hour and 4-hour EMA20 and EMA60, and the 4-hour MACD continues to amplify above the zero axis, indicating that the rebound structure has not yet broken down However, it has now peaked at the 1-hour Bollinger Bands, with 64000 being the first pressure level. After breaking through, it looks like 65000, with strong pressure at 68000 The first support below is between 63100 and 62900, with strong support at 62200 The funding rate is only about 0.0053%, with a holding amount of approximately 1.93 billion US dollars. Long positions are starting to recover, but they are not particularly crowded yet So my conclusion is biased, not chasing too much Stepping back from 63100 to 62900 without breaking, you can continue to watch the rebound, and place the stop loss below 61800 If the volume stabilizes at 64000, then continue to look at 65000 and 68000