飞凡
飞凡|Jul 10, 2026 00:48
Next week, the CPI and PPI for June will be released. June's CPI will definitely show a significant cooldown overall, but it's hard to stay bullish. In May, U.S. inflation was temporarily pushed up by energy prices due to the U.S.-Iran war and Middle East conflicts. In June, energy prices started to decline, so overall CPI will drop along with crude oil prices. However, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, will remain very sticky. Housing rents and tariff issues continue to be long-term pain points for core CPI, and the May data showed an increasingly severe trend. Institutions are estimating the data in real-time, predicting overall CPI MoM at around -0.06% and core CPI MoM at around 0.23%. Core CPI would need to drop to 0.1% to really get the bulls in the market excited.
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