金十数据|7月 09, 2026 08:14
After SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 Index, its stock price experienced a significant pullback. On the second day after being included in the index on July 7, the stock price dropped about 35% from its previous high, falling below $147 and nearly erasing all gains since its IPO. In simple terms, this appears to be a classic case of 'buy the rumor, sell the news.' Ultimately, Wall Street seems to have concluded that the stock is not worth the high premium it enjoyed prior to its inclusion in the index, especially the record high it reached shortly after the IPO.
Currently, SpaceX's market capitalization is approximately $1.9 trillion, with projected revenue of about $18.7 billion in 2025, giving it a valuation of roughly 100 times revenue. The company's high valuation is primarily driven by its Starlink satellite internet business, which is expected to contribute over $11 billion in revenue in 2025, accounting for about 60% of the company's total revenue. However, SpaceX still faces profitability challenges. The company is projected to incur a loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026, while also needing to invest heavily in its Starship rocket program and AI initiative xAI.
The current stock price already reflects the market's high expectations for Starlink's continued growth, progress in the rocket program, and returns on AI investments. Any setbacks in these areas could pose risks to the stock. Although the price drop has made SpaceX cheaper than it was a week ago, this does not equate to being 'inexpensive.' Given that the company is still in a state of multi-billion-dollar losses, its nearly $2 trillion market capitalization lacks a margin of safety. Even after a sharp single-day decline, the best strategy is to remain on the sidelines and wait for SpaceX to demonstrate that Starlink's profits can exceed its expenditures.
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