[SemiAnalysis: AI is Changing U.S. Employment Expectations, Fed Likely to Maintain a Wait-and-See Approach] BlockBeats News, July 8 — The independent semiconductor and AI research institution SemiAnalysis published an article stating that while U.S. consumer confidence continues to weaken, the labor market has yet to show significant signs of deterioration consistent with this trend. Voluntary quit rates are typically the best indicator of consumer confidence in employment, and currently, the number of voluntary resignations remains low, reflecting that employees are not broadly choosing to leave their jobs. However, consumers have begun to express concerns about future employment prospects, and this sentiment is not driven by short-term factors such as oil prices. In comparison, the U.S. Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index aligns closely with trends in voluntary quit rates, while the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index appears more pessimistic and less correlated. From industry data, over the past six months, job vacancies in U.S. industrial, manufacturing, and import-related sectors have increased, while the sharp decline in job openings is primarily concentrated in the information services sector. Artificial intelligence (AI) has initially impacted industries with lower entry barriers. Market concerns about AI replacing jobs have far exceeded its actual impact, and this panic itself may further suppress wage growth and consumer spending, shifting U.S. economic growth momentum from consumption to investment, even though a large-scale AI-induced unemployment wave has yet to materialize. Regarding U.S. non-farm employment data, low voluntary quit rates combined with weak consumer confidence are not positive signals. However, against the backdrop of an aging population, the continued retirement of the Baby Boomer generation, and the diminishing impact of immigration on labor force growth, the number of new jobs needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate of 4.3% may be as low as 55,000. Following last month's better-than-expected addition of 172,000 jobs, a decline in this month's employment data remains the baseline scenario. Even so, if the market's general expectation of approximately 110,000 new jobs is met, this level could still exert downward pressure on the unemployment rate, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain its wait-and-see stance rather than rushing to adjust monetary policy due to deteriorating consumer sentiment. [Original Link]