Dr. Moyu|摸鱼局长|Jul 08, 2026 10:22
For the past decade or so, every time the U.S. stock market dips, someone always shouts, 'This time it's going to crash.'
But from the financial crisis until the end of 2025, out of 17 full years for the S&P 500, only 2 years saw declines: about 4.4% in 2018 and about 18.1% in 2022.
The Nasdaq 100 is more volatile—down about 33% in 2022, but up about 54% in 2009, about 48% in 2020, about 54% in 2023, and about 20% in 2025.
During this period, we’ve gone through the Euro debt crisis, trade wars, pandemic circuit breakers, aggressive rate hikes, banking collapses, and AI valuation debates.
Each of these events seemed scary at the time, but zooming out, the S&P 500 has repeatedly recovered, and the Nasdaq 100 has hit new highs again and again.
So, I think when looking at U.S. stocks, you need to have your own judgment. Short-term fluctuations are mostly driven by emotions, but long-term trends depend on asset quality. Don’t let market sentiment sway you just because someone says, 'It’s going to crash.'
For information sharing only, not investment advice.
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