金色财经
金色财经|Jul 08, 2026 06:23
[Japanese Bond Yields Hit 30-Year High, Market Wary of Worsening Debt Cycle] Reported by Golden Finance, on July 8, the continued depreciation of the yen combined with a massive long-term fiscal spending plan has raised global investors' concerns about the repayment pressure on Japanese government debt, leading to a sharp rise in overall domestic financing costs in Japan. This year, Japanese government bonds have faced large-scale sell-offs, with the benchmark 10-year government bond yield climbing above 2.85%, marking the highest level in 30 years since 1996. The market generally attributes this round of long-term bond declines to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's introduction of a 14-year fiscal expansion plan totaling $2.3 trillion. In addition, doubts about the pace of the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments have also weighed on bond prices: the Bank of Japan only raised its policy rate to 1% last month, and investors are concerned that the central bank's delayed tightening measures could lead inflation to exceed the official control target of 2%. Alex Everett, Investment Director at Abrdn, analyzed that the Bank of Japan's conservative stance on subsequent rate hikes, the long-term weakening of the yen, and the market's pessimistic expectations for fiscal sustainability have collectively amplified the downward pressure on long-term government bonds. Concerns about forward debt risks are directly reflected in the term spread: the yield premium of 10-year bonds relative to 2-year bonds has expanded from less than 1 percentage point in April to the current 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, major bond markets such as the U.S. and Germany have seen their long-short end spreads remain flat or even narrow during the same period, highlighting the independent downward trend in Japan's bond market.
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