链研社|AI First🔶💧
链研社|AI First🔶💧|Jul 08, 2026 03:04
The most dangerous thing about the US stock market now is not how much it has fallen overall, but rather how it is becoming increasingly distorted. Nowadays, the US stock market is like a class where only 5-10 top students can compete. Among them are the super large cap technology stocks in AI and semiconductor, which have achieved full performance and pushed up the class average score. The index has risen, but many individual stocks have actually fallen significantly. There are still dozens of ordinary students, including small and medium-sized enterprises, traditional industries, and value stocks, with average grades and some still declining. A small number of stocks are driving the entire market, and the problem is not with the structure itself, but rather that it has reached its limit. I explained it in plain language with four comparison charts. The first set of pictures is a thermometer for defense and attack. He compared the S&P 500 to the dividend index, with the brown line indicating offense when it goes down and defense when it goes up. The recent rebound of the brown line indicates that some of the main players who truly manage big money are quietly shifting towards quality and defense at the most extreme structural moments. It is a typical signal for institutions to escape secretly. In history, every time the structure continues to deteriorate and smart money has reversed, it is often a prelude to systematic rebalancing. The second picture is really dangerous. Comparison between VIX and VIXEQ. The normal panic index VIX looks low and calm, as the large market value of technology stocks has suppressed the volatility of the index. But the actual volatility of assets outside the circle, such as small and medium-sized enterprises, traditional industries, and value stocks, has been rising, resulting in a continuous decline in price comparison. The volatility is trapped within a very small circle, and all the pressure is accumulated outside the circle. Once broken, the transmission is extremely fast because leverage and derivatives are all based on low VIX+high concentration. The structure and configuration should have been synchronized, but now they have deviated. The structural end continues to be extreme, big technology is more concentrated, and external fluctuations are spreading. On the configuration side, the dividend aristocracy is recovering, and the defense price is turning around. Twisting both ends, the system is approaching the point of being forced to rebalance. Institutions are aware of asymmetric risks and will not wait for prices to collapse first. They will hedge and allocate on instruments with good liquidity first. Retail investors and momentum funds are still chasing the final concentration trend. Waiting for VIXEQ to truly drive VIX upward, waiting for AI internal differentiation, waiting for leverage to be forced to be reduced, the response window is much shorter than expected. The conclusion is clear. Now is not the time to blindly invest in the most crowded AI technology. The organization has already laid out defense in advance, but you are still sprinting, which is a mismatch in rhythm. If you want to be stable, don't chase the most crowded track On the surface, it is still stable, but the risks are not small, especially for high valuation and cyclical technology stocks
+3
Mentioned
Share To

Timeline

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads