Options and on-chain signals resonate, probability of cyclical bottom formation is rising In the options market, the 3-month and 6-month skew (volatility skew) has risen to extreme highs within the cycle, indicating strong demand for risk hedging. The market is pricing the mid-term outlook for bitcoin:native as overall “pessimistic.” This scenario typically occurs when the downtrend has lasted long enough, and most participants believe the decline isn’t over yet. For example, 2022 followed this script: after LUNA and 3AC, long-dated skew surged, and eventually, the FTX collapse pushed it to extreme levels, where it stayed elevated for months. We can understand the logic behind this signal as follows: When “everyone who wants protection has already bought protection,” the marginal increase in panic dries up. This is similar to the on-chain “capitulation behavior” logic—when the spending of loss-making coins reaches a turning point, it signals that selling pressure is nearly exhausted. Historically, sustained high levels of long-dated skew often correspond to the latter stages of cyclical bottom formation. This is because it reflects that pessimistic pricing in the options market has reached historical extremes, which, from an odds perspective, is unfavorable for bears. This resonates with the signals we previously mentioned in “LTH capitulation turning point” and the “2026 bottom signal series.” Specific tweet links below: https://(((x.com)))/Murphychen888/status/2071820452419490076 https://(((x.com)))/Murphychen888/status/2064601867234271706 https://(((x.com)))/Murphychen888/status/2066332361470386373