Phyrex
Phyrex|Jul 07, 2026 13:50
In a highly leveraged market, good financial reports may be like Viagra - should the efficacy be softened or not Today I saw a discussion among some friends that there is no need to worry about the decline of semiconductors. As long as the financial report continues to report good news, the stock price will definitely rise. I do not completely agree with this viewpoint. Can you explain my reasons. Firstly, financial reports are certainly important. Without performance support, it is difficult for the market to go far in the long run. Especially in the current round of AI, semiconductor, and storage related stocks in South Korea, their rise to the current level is definitely supported by industry cycles and profit increments. But a good financial report does not necessarily mean that the stock price will continue to rise. In the short term, stocks not only look at the financial report itself, but also at how much the previous price has risen, how high the market expectations have been, how much financing has been added, and how many leveraged ETFs have been stacked. Samsung is the most direct example this time. The Q2 operating profit forecast is expected to increase by nearly 19 times year-on-year, and the data is already exaggerated. However, Samsung and SK Hynix still fell sharply, and KOSPI triggered a temporary suspension of trading. The reason is that the market is no longer just looking at how much money companies have earned in this quarter, but also whether AI and storage can continue to grow after this cycle. Nvidia has also experienced a similar situation this year. The February financial report was good, with both revenue and profit exceeding expectations, but the stock price still fell by 4%. At that time, the market was more concerned about when the return on investment in AI would come out, whether competition would become stronger, and whether the growth in the future could continue. In May, Nvidia once again provided higher than expected revenue guidance and announced a $80 billion buyback, but its stock price still fell 1.6% after hours. This indicates that in the high expectations stage, simply 'good' is no longer enough, the market needs to see stronger, farther, and more certain growth. Meta is the same. Q1 revenue growth is good, and profit margins are also decent, but after the company continued to raise its capital expenditure expectations for 2026, the stock price still plummeted. Because investors are concerned that AI is spending money too quickly and profits are not yet clear. So financial reports are fundamentals, and stock prices are priced together with expectations and funds. If the financial report is good, the stock price position is not high, and the leverage is not heavy, then of course it may continue to rise. But if we have already relied on financing and leveraged ETFs to push for a long period of time, as long as the financial report does not continue to significantly exceed expectations, it is easy to become a reason for funds to be cashed out. This is also the most important thing to pay attention to in the Korean market now. Behind this round of rise are spot buying orders, financing orders, leveraged ETFs, and a large amount of chasing funds. During the upward phase, this money will push the market higher. Once it reaches a high level, as long as the trend begins to fluctuate, leveraged funds will become very sensitive. But financial reports can only solve the problem of whether the company has made money, but cannot solve the problems of whether the stock price has risen too much in the past, whether market expectations have been fully met, and whether there is still new money to continue receiving in the future. If the stock price is not high and the leverage is not heavy, good financial reports may certainly continue to drive upward. But if we have already relied on financing and leveraged ETFs for a long time, as long as the financial report does not continue to significantly exceed expectations, it is easy to become a reason for funds to be cashed out. So now when looking at Korean semiconductors, I think we can't just rely on financial reports to report good news. A good financial report is certainly useful, but it depends on whether it has risen ahead of schedule. The fundamentals of Samsung and SK Hynix have not suddenly deteriorated, but the problem is that they have risen too quickly earlier, and the financing and leveraged ETFs have piled up too high. In this situation, what the market needs is not only good financial reports, but also stronger than expected results and continued funding. If it cannot be sustained later, good financial reports may also become a reason for cash out. This is very similar to the good news landing in the cryptocurrency industry. The positive news is true, and the price may have already been reflected in advance. So I think that Korean semiconductor companies should not only look at their financial reports, but also consider their expectations, position, and leverage. Making money is important for a company, but whether stocks can continue to rise depends on whether there is still new money in the market willing to continue buying. In a high leverage market, good financial reports may be like Viagra, which can excite the market in the short term, but cannot solve the problems of overly high expectations, high leverage, and no one taking over later. Once the drug effect is over, the funds that need to be cashed out will still be cashed out, the funds that need to be deleveraged will still be deleveraged, and the funds that need to be softened will still be softened. @Gate Crypto、 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korean stocks, gold CFD、 Predicting one-stop trading in the market
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