The market is fully pricing in a hawkish Fed. Currently CME is pricing in 80% chance of a rate hike by December, and 35% chance of 2 or more hikes. 0% on any cuts! This feels off as long as oil remains at $70. Yes inflation is creeping up again (oil), but remember we came into 2026 with the market pricing cuts, not hikes. We also know Trump elected Warsh on more or less alignment not to hike. Seems like there may be a higher probability of (at least) an extended pause than the market is pricing in. If that picture becomes more clear in the coming months, equities will squeeze higher as markets price in a non-zero probability of a Fed that isn't 100% hawkish.(Charles Edwards)