Murphy|Jul 07, 2026 01:54
Micro strategy has achieved the first true "large-scale coin sale" in history, completely shattering the market psychological anchor point of "never selling coins". What is the reason for actively breaking the core narrative when cash reserves are sufficient and far exceed interest payment needs (covering 17 months)?
Teacher Jiang Zhuo'er believes that Strategy may have prepared to use some of its BTC reserves for active band operations, which I personally don't think is very similar. There are three reasons for this:
one ⃣ The timing of this sale is determined by the quarterly interest payment window at the end of June and the beginning of July, which is a calendar driven behavior with almost no traces of price timing.
two ⃣ A team that wants to do band trading will not choose to passively sell in a weak position (BTC with a selling cost of $75700 at $60196), but will actively reduce their holdings during a rebound.
three ⃣ The valuation premise of Strategy is to leverage BTC agents. Once the market characterizes it as a fund that trades at the right time, the premium basis disappears, and the cost is far greater than the money that can be earned from band trading, which is not worth the loss.
So, I guess its purpose is still more inclined towards liquidity management. The real arbitrage space here lies in its own capital structure: STRC once fell to $75, with a face value of 100 and an annual interest rate of 11%. The certainty return of selling BTC to buy back this type of paper is much higher than holding BTC at the margin.
In other words, selling BTC is not a financial dilemma, but rather a part of the market's adaptation and testing process. The process is: spending cash to buy back discounted bonds/preferred stocks → hitting the bottom of reserves → rebuilding reserves → selling coins and paying interest to stop the reserves from being consumed.
The approved selling limit for the last announcement was $1.25 billion, but this time the 3588 coins sold consumed $216 million, leaving approximately $1.03 billion in the limit. So, we are likely to see a repetition of "selling coins, repurchasing, and reselling coins" in the future.
However, we may consider it from a different perspective, as such events actually have another meaning.
When the largest BTC holder, who is also an LTH, is forced to liquidate at a price lower than cost, it is essentially a "surrender behavior" at the institutional level. In history, passive selling of iconic entities often gathered in the bottom area.
We can see this from the BTC price performance after the announcement of the news. The market is slowly learning to adapt.
Share To
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink