大老师Bugsbunny |DRAM UP only
大老师Bugsbunny |DRAM UP only|7月 06, 2026 15:27
Samsung's financial report and the listing of Hynix have caused a backlog of funds in the Memory sector. The most important transaction for the storage sector next is not simply to see if MU can continue to rise, but to see if two events will change the choice of funds. This seems to be overlooked by many people. Firstly, Samsung's financial report will be released tomorrow morning at 7:00 am. Secondly, from July 8th to 10th, Hynix will be listed on the trading window. Samsung's financial report this time has already prepared the market psychologically for exceeding expectations. The demand for AI servers, the increase in HBM volume, and the rise in DRAM/NAND prices are not new stories. So the real key is not whether the numbers are good or not, but whether the guidance is strong enough. What the market needs to look at is: Does HBM demand continue to exceed supply; Will DRAM/NAND prices continue to rise; Will customer orders remain strong in the second half of the year; Is AI Capex shifting its storage cycle from traditional inventory cycles to structural stockout cycles. If Samsung only has good performance but no stronger guidance, then the storage sector can easily turn into a positive realization. Because there is no shortage of good news in the market now, what is lacking is a reason to continue the upward revision. —————————— The more important variable is the listing of Hynix. In the past, when US stock funds wanted to buy AI Memory, the most convenient entry point was basically MU Not because MU is the purest HBM leader, but because it is the easiest to trade, has the best liquidity, and is also the easiest for institutions to express storage cycles in the US stock market. So MU has enjoyed a portion of the 'uniqueness premium' in the past. But once the listing window for Hynix opens, this logic will change. Hynix is one of the more core assets in this round of HBM transactions. If US stock funds can more conveniently buy Hynix, then funds will naturally be compared again: Buying MU means buying American storage leaders and cycle flexibility. Buying Hynix is buying a more direct HBM lead exposure. Buying DRAM means buying the entire Memory Basket. ———————— That's also why the entrance to US stock trading itself has become important. For example, on chain US stock trading portals like Bitget Wallet do not truly change the fundamentals of a particular company, but rather reduce the friction between non US users entering the US stock market and ETF exposure. When funds can more conveniently switch US stock assets on the chain, the market will compare more quickly: whether to buy stocks or buy sector baskets. My Bitget Wallet invitation code: dalaoshi ———————— That's why I think MU will be suppressed in the short term. It's not that the fundamentals of MU are broken, but its default entry status has been weakened. In the past, funds had no choice but to buy MU. Now that there are more options for funds, MU must prove again that it is worth continuing to add positions. —————————— So what we really need to observe next is not the individual rise and fall of MU, but whether the funds have left Memory Trade. If Samsung's financial report strengthens the logic of industry price increases and Hynix's IPO acceptance is also strong, then funds may not necessarily leave storage, but may only switch from single stocks like MU to purer storage baskets like Hynix or DRAM. These two results are completely different. If funds withdraw from Memory Trade, it means the sector enters defense. If the funds are only exchanged for carriers, then the storage mainline is still there, but MU is no longer the only answer. I will also observe the preference changes of US stock trading users for assets such as AI, semiconductors, and ETFs in portals like Bitget Wallet. Because when on chain funds start trading US stocks, many times they are not traditional long-term configurations, but more event driven and theme driven. —————————— So my assessment for the next few days is: The storage mid-term logic has not ended. AI demand, HBM shortage, DRAM/NAND price increase, all of these are still ongoing. But short-term trading will become significantly more difficult. Because starting from Samsung's financial report, the market will enter a phase of continuous event verification. Samsung decides whether the industry's expectations can continue to be revised upwards. The listing of Hynix will determine whether funds will be redistributed. MU decides whether the US stock market can still maintain its premium by storing individual stocks. DRAM determines whether funds are willing to stay in the storage sector. Storage remains the core direction in AI trading. But from now on, it is no longer a brainless attack, but enters into event verification. In terms of trading experience, the Bitget Wallet portal has begun to demonstrate its advantages: it is not simply moving US stocks onto the chain, but integrating exposure to stocks, contracts, and even Hong Kong stocks into a smoother trading path. It is no longer like a traditional wallet, but more like a cross asset trading portal walking ahead of the wallet.
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