Chris Waller isn't against all forward guidance but warns that it is "more art than science." Where it's worked: it shaved months off policy transmission when used to tighten ahead of hikes. Guidance in the fall of 2021 moved the 2yr ~200bps before a single rate move. Where it's dangerous: when it's rigid. The Sept 2020 guidance boxed the FOMC in and delayed liftoff as inflation ran. Also, he says it's a poor fit for a bimodal outlook: When approaching an intersection and the light turns to yellow, you either hit the gas or the brakes. Your base case can't be stopping in the middle of the intersection.(Nick Timiraos)