Thor
Thor|Jul 06, 2026 15:10
LIT up >50% in the past week and now trading at prices not seen since the first weeks after TGE. What I'd want to see for this rally to continue: 1. Growth in metrics, especially RWA volume Daily volume, revenue and open interest is still relatively flat over the past weeks/months. RWA volume marketshare however has been trending up lately which is bullish as it translates to more non-crypto correlated revenue and likely makes LIT less dependant on BTC and the broader crypto market (see the figure below). 2. Clear revenue growth from recent partner integrations like Robinhood TBD at this stage but worth keeping an eye on whether the Robinhood partnership translates to any meaningful growth in users/volume/revenue for Lighter. Their dashboard showing traction from other partners: https://app.lighter.xyz/stats?tab=partners 3. Broader perp expansion Excitement around perps translates to higher price-to-revenue multiples for the entire sector. HYPE catching a bid is therefore also a bullish catalyst for LIT imo. HYPE/LIT is down 50% since the peak a month ago as LIT has been catching up. LIT is now trading at a much closer revenue multiple (HYPE doing 22x more daily revenue than LIT but is trading at a 29x higher valuation, see figure below). Not sure I see a case for LIT to trade at a higher revenue multiple than HYPE so would need either HYPE to trade higher or Lighter's revenue to increase.(Thor)
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