qinbafrank|Jul 06, 2026 15:09
Let's talk about the most popular green harmonic in the robot industry chain. Its key position in the industry chain is not only as a "humanoid robot concept stock", but also as a precision transmission threshold supplier in the rotating joints. The bottleneck is the mechanical reliability threshold for robot joints to transition from "active" to "long-term, stable, low backlash, and high consistency motion".
In the era of industrial robots, it is a "domestic alternative core component supplier";
In the era of humanoid robots, it may become a bottleneck in production capacity and reliability before the mass production of rotary joints.
The long-term value of green harmonics depends on whether it can complete three upgrades:
1) The first upgrade was from a domestic replacement leader for industrial robot harmonic reducers to a core supplier of rotating joints for humanoid robots in China. At this stage, there is already strong evidence that the revenue, profit, and sales data for the first quarter of 2025 and 2026 are being validated.
2) The second upgrade is from a single harmonic reducer to a supplier of electromechanical integrated rotary actuators. At the beginning of this stage, the growth of mechatronics products will be rapid and the gross profit margin will be high in 2025, but the revenue volume is not yet large enough.
2) The third upgrade is from a domestic supply chain leader to an important supplier of global humanoid robot joint platforms. The SKF joint venture is a positive signal, but it still requires mass production certification, long-term supply, and verification of overseas revenue share.
I personally define green harmonics as one of the core transmission assets with the clearest, highest purity, and most capacity first mover advantage in the rotating joints of the Chinese robot industry chain. Its scarcity is real, and its discourse power is also real, but this discourse power leans more towards "validation and delivery bottlenecks" rather than "long-term strong pricing".
The biggest space in the future lies in the mass production of humanoid robots, modular upgrades, and breakthroughs in global customer base;
The biggest valuation risk also happens to come from the fact that these three things cannot be realized simultaneously.
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