PANews|Jul 06, 2026 07:51
[Analyst: Bitcoin Futures Premium and Open Interest Index Both Turn Positive, Leverage Demand Rebounds]
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating signs of improvement in the Bitcoin futures market: for the first time in a month, futures prices have exceeded spot prices, with the basis rebounding to positive territory in early July after hitting a low of -0.40% in the third week of June. The 30-day moving average of the open interest index has also turned positive, reflecting a surge in long positions over the past few days and a return of risk appetite.
However, the analyst noted that the improvement in both indicators remains relatively shallow—the premium is only slightly above zero, and the open interest index has shown signs of cooling over the past two days. The current state is closer to normalization rather than a trend reversal, and confirmation of a structural shift requires the basis to remain positive and open interest to sustain positive levels. The main risk lies in the early rebound of leverage demand failing to persist, which could instead trigger a new round of market liquidation.
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