A trader who achieved the best portfolio returns on Substack issued a warning back on June 7: Yen carry trades are about to explode, and the U.S. stock market might face a 20% correction in Q3. Last week, he accurately predicted the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S., and the SPX index movement perfectly stayed within his defined range of 7300-7700. This week, he updated his signals: The weekly closing pattern of SMH has strengthened his confidence in a 20% correction for QQQ and SPY between the expiration of July options and October. However, he’s not pessimistic in the short term. He expects the market to experience a rally leading up to the July 4th holiday week and the expiration of July options. Early next week, there might be another round of panic-driven dips, possibly even testing the early June lows, but this will likely be followed by a “Trump-style” rebound—potentially driven by a fake peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon—pushing the market back to historical highs. The real correction window opens after July options expiration and lasts until October. During this period, the Nasdaq, semiconductors, and speculative stocks will be hit the hardest. After October, the market will enter the “melt-up” phase of the final bubble stage. He specifically mentioned similarities between 2026 and 1998, with yen carry trades being the key variable. Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points during the June options expiration week, which could be the first domino triggering a chain reaction. Current strategy: Trade within the range—buy SPX near 7300, sell above 7550, and gradually turn bearish above 7600. The real heavy-position opportunities will come after the correction.