Last week, a heatwave hit Europe and the US, but daily oil extraction remained below 800,000 barrels—this means that even if tensions with Iran escalate, U.S. reserves can continue to suppress oil prices until after the elections. This is a clear tailwind for the stock market. As long as Trump doesn’t choose to take military action against Iran (which would be highly unpopular before the midterm elections), it’s hard to see any significant downward drivers in the short term. Cheap energy = Cooling inflation = Rate cut expectations = Stock market support For now, it looks like July is shaping up to be a good month for a rebound.