律动BlockBeats|Jul 06, 2026 05:09
**[Analysis: Bitcoin Rebounds but Spot Trading Volume Rapidly Shrinks, Risk of Long Squeeze in Derivatives Accumulating]**
BlockBeats News, July 6: Crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that during Bitcoin's rebound from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, the relative spot trading volume declined rapidly. A rebound lacking support from spot demand is unlikely to form the basis for a trend reversal and is often just a sentiment-driven corrective move. The sustainability of the rebound needs to be closely monitored.
On the positive side, the USDC/USDT exchange rate has fallen from 1.001 to 1.0006, indicating a weakening intent to exit and a recovery in trading activity. While mainstream stablecoins on trading platforms are still in a net outflow state, the scale of outflows has been narrowing, and the marginal improvement in liquidity pressure provides support for the continuation of the rebound.
However, the weakening of spot-driven momentum means that the influence of derivatives is relatively increasing. The 7-day moving average of perpetual contract long premiums has continued to rise to $160,000/hour, indicating that Taker buying has persistently pushed perpetual prices above spot prices. Although open interest has declined somewhat, it remains significantly higher than February levels this year.
Currently, the long premium is still within a normal range, but as the rebound continues, the risk of a long squeeze will accumulate. If open interest rebounds again, intense long-short battles could lead to faster and sharper volatility, which is a potential risk that needs to be anticipated in advance. [Original Link]
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