qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Jul 06, 2026 03:50
The transformation of big technology into old listed stocks is actually discussed in this long article in mid February. Many people see the second point that the upstream of the computing power industry chain can enjoy the dividends of huge capital expenditures, but they overlook the first point that the large capital expenditures bring about changes in the big technology business model, which in the long run is the downward shift of the valuation center. Looking back now, the top few companies with the highest capital expenditures have seen an overall decline in valuation compared to the time. At that time, the article also discussed how the business model would change and the core logic; 1) How will the business model of large technology companies change? Previously, it was characterized by rapid growth, light assets, and low capital expenditures; The future is characterized by rapid growth, heavy assets, and high capital expenditures. 2) Core Logic On the balance sheets reflecting assets and liabilities, the four companies added nearly $117 billion in new debt and lease liabilities by 2025. The four companies with the highest capital expenditures may have nearly $200 billion in new debt and leasing in 2026. Another cloud service provider, Oracle, has stated that it may borrow up to $50 billion this year. The changes in the cash flow statement are the most drastic. The operating cash flow of these companies (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta) is considered a giant, with a total of over $500 billion by 2025. However, due to significant capital expenditures, the final retained free cash flow (FCF) was only $163 billion. Free cash flow is the source of funds for dividends and stock repurchases, and after completing these expenses, these four companies only have $28 billion left. Due to the surge in capital expenditures, these companies must increase their operating cash flow by approximately 30% in order to maintain the same level of free cash flow as in 2025. However, analysts surveyed by FactSet predict an average growth rate of only 19%. This means that these companies may be forced to slow down or even suspend stock buybacks, and there may be no talk of increasing dividends. Otherwise, they would have to borrow money to fully implement the same level of cash returns. The recently discussed upstream price increase has led to a surge in data center costs, causing super large cloud vendors to pay extra costs for the same amount of computing power. At that time, it was also calculated that with the price increase of various links such as upstream storage and optical modules, the same capital expenditure in 26 years may only buy more than 70% of the computing power scale in 25 years.
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