BTC has climbed to $63K, and many people think the bull market is restarting. But I want to remind everyone: what you’re seeing is the price going up, but what the market is actually doing is 'switching out a batch of people on the ride.' ETH has gone up 11% over the past two days, which is indeed stronger, but the structure hasn’t improved. The long-short ratio dropped from 2.79 to 1.41, meaning the previous wave of aggressive longs has already been cleared out. ETFs are still seeing net outflows, and there’s no significant increase in on-chain capital. When you put all this together, it’s not an incremental market, but rather a 'rebound after leverage cleanup.' ETH outperforming BTC isn’t due to some sudden fundamental breakout, but because capital is looking for better short-term targets to rotate into. It’s the same with BTC—there’s no volume-driven push; it’s just a natural recovery after an oversell. On the macro side, there’s no clear direction. U.S. data is weakening on one hand, but unemployment rates are still being held down. Geopolitical risks are in a temporary pause, not resolved. So right now, the most important thing in the market isn’t predicting ups or downs, but figuring out one thing: is there new money coming in? From here, just focus on three points: whether ETH can hold $1,800, whether BTC can defend the $62,400 level, and whether capital starts flowing back in. If none of these happen, then this rally is more like a 'rebound after a washout' rather than the start of a new trend.