BTC Four-Year Cycle Series (40)
CryptoChan|7月 06, 2026 02:09
The classic 'Three-Stage Bottom Formation' is wrapping up as expected ♂️
┌── On-Chain Data Details ──┐
Bitcoin STH-MVRV is perfectly replicating the bottoming fractal structure of 2021-2022.
Looking at the red line in the chart, when Bitcoin STH-MVRV drops below 1.0 (the breakeven line for short-term holders), it doesn’t immediately reverse but instead forms a classic 'Three-Stage Bottom Formation':
1️⃣ Initial Breakdown: Panic selling emerges, breaking below 1.0
2️⃣ Deep Shakeout: After a failed rebound to 1.0, the largest secondary bottom occurs (the sharpest dip in the chart)
3️⃣ Converging Confirmation: We are currently in the final stage of this cycle’s third bottoming phase, with higher lows forming a localized converging W-bottom variant
History doesn’t repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes. The first two deep dips have already flushed out weak hands. Once the indicator breaks above and holds 1.0 strongly, it signals that short-term holders are fully out of the red, and the trend will enter a true right-side reversal.
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