𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽|Jul 06, 2026 01:24
🚨 We are repeating 1995 dotcom bubble pattern literally 1:1
Over a decade in markets and I've never seen this many crash indicators flashing at once
Start with the biggest one: the IPO wave. Everyone thinks the SpaceX trade is over, but it hasnt even started.
Aug 6 will change everything.
SPCX did the largest IPO in history on June 12. $135, $1.77T valuation, $75B raised. Then it ripped to $225 in 4 days and dumped 35% back to $147. The crowd that bought the hype is already underwater.
And here's the thing: an IPO is not the start of the run. It's the exit. The day insiders + early backers turn paper into cash.
This time they built the buyer out of millions of retail accounts. Fidelity cut its IPO minimum from $500k to $2k, a 99.6% cut. Robinhood, SoFi: no minimum at all. Retail got 30% of the offering when the standard is 5-10%.
They dropped every barrier to get u IN. Then bolted the exit: sell in the first 15 days and ur flagged a flipper, with bans escalating up to a lifetime one tied to ur SSN.
You dont build a one-way door unless u already know which way the crowd has to run.
History shows the ending every time.
Truist studied 30 major tech IPOs since 2012:
Median year-1 drawdown: -54%
Only 43% green 6 months in
11 of 30 fell 64-90%
FB, SNAP, UBER, HOOD: same script. Huge debut, endless hype, lockups expire, early money hands u the bag.
Now price SpaceX into that: over 110x sales, $4.9B loss last year, $41.3B accumulated deficit. CFRA rated it a SELL under an hour after open. Morningstar fair value: $63. It trades at $162.
And the real distribution event is still ahead: Aug 6.
First earnings report = insiders finally unlock 20% of their stock, +10% more if price holds high. At the same time SPCX enters the Nasdaq-100, so index funds are FORCED to buy it near the top. Forced buyers meeting real sellers. That's the window.
Moreover, this is just IPO #1. OpenAI (~$850-900B) and Anthropic (~$965B) already filed. No dates yet, but the window is open and they'll fly through it. 3 of the biggest listings in history, all AI-linked, all landing into the same indexes.
Which brings us to what actually holds all of this up: the AI money-loop.
$800B+ in circular financing rn:
1/ NVDA invests in OpenAI 2/ OpenAI signs $300B in cloud deals w/ ORCL 3/ Oracle buys billions in Nvidia chips to fill them 4/ Nvidia books the revenue, stock pumps, funds more deals
Same dollars circling between a handful of names, dressed up as organic demand.
The cracks are already showing. OpenAI is on track to lose ~$14B this year. Nvidia's $100B OpenAI deal was reported "on ice". ORCL dumped 30% in a quarter on fears OpenAI cant pay its bills. Michael Burry, the guy who called 2008, is shorting NVDA and comparing this to Enron-style vendor financing.
And here's how 1 crack becomes a cascade:
Microsoft AI revenue disappoints -> cuts Azure spend -> hits Nvidia revenue -> tanks CoreWeave valuation -> chokes OpenAI funding -> Oracle left holding $300B in commitments nobody pays for.
Pull 1 card and the whole circle tightens.
This is exactly the dotcom script. Back then Nortel and Lucent financed their own customers to fake demand. The loop looked unbreakable, until one link missed a payment. Then the entire thing unwound in months. Insiders rich, retail wrecked.
Same in 2021 SPAC mania. Same now, just 10x the size.
How to max profit on it? I have an idea...
I already made 6 figs shorting SpaceX publicly, posted it all in real time. And I'm not stopping there.
Soon I'm sharing my biggest trade ever, confident it makes me millions.
Dropping it in my free private group: https://x.com/nobrainflip/status/2073857306693923015 (btw I'll stop accepting new requests soon, so hurry up)
A lot of people are going to wish they joined before the doors close.(𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽)
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