美国 Market Holiday Musings Semiconductors dropped 5% last week, while SPY barely moved. SMH -4.5%, SOXX -5.6%. The broader market stayed steady, but chips are bleeding on their own. NVDA fell from 236 to 195, down 17% from its peak. No one’s calling it a bear market, but semiconductors are already in their own bear run. To be honest, I’m not sure if next week will bring a rebound or an accelerated drop. Friday saw heavy volume, the weekly chart broke down, and the pattern looks ugly. The fact that SPY didn’t follow the drop is the most intriguing part. Money hasn’t left—it’s just moved elsewhere. If SMH breaks 580 next week, the problem will spread from chips to the entire AI narrative. This is the only thing worth watching next week. Everything else is just noise.