Art of Speculation|7月 05, 2026 06:28
The data from a16z further confirms my judgment on the robot race track
First, let's take a look at a set of data
A few days ago, a16z released a set of data (based on Pitchbook's statistics as of March 31, 2026, Figure 1). In the first quarter of 2026, the amount of VC financing and the number of transactions in the robotics field both reached a historical high, with a single quarter financing scale of around 16.3 billion US dollars and nearly 500 transactions. Compared to previous quarters, which generally fluctuated between 4 billion and 6 billion US dollars, this time it is almost a discontinuous leap. More noteworthy is that the curve of transaction volume has been sharply rising since 2025, indicating that this is not isolated data supported by a single mega financing, but rather a systematic increase in financing activity across the entire track. In the past few years, Figure AI、Apptronik、Skild AI、Physical Intelligence、1X、Agility Robotics These companies continue to receive large amounts of financing, indicating that capital is actually laying out the main line of Physical AI in advance.
The old rule of the capital market: it takes many years for an industry to mature, but stock prices often start trading expectations six months to a year in advance
The real maturity of the robotics industry may take quite some time, but the stock market never starts pricing after the industry has matured. Usually, future expectations are reflected in stock prices in advance. I think the robotics sector is likely to go through a similar process in the future. As the IPO expectations of top companies such as Figure AI, Agility Robotics, and Unitree gradually heat up, the market is likely to turn its attention to the entire robotics industry chain in advance and begin to explore potential beneficiary companies.
This reminds me of the first wave of speculation about SpaceX's expected IPO at the end of 2025
At that time, as SpaceX's valuation continued to hit new highs, the entire space sector underwent a round of valuation reassessment. Companies like DXYZ, which held SpaceX's private equity (corresponding to BOT in robotics), as well as related industry chain companies such as satellite communications and aerospace manufacturing, received a lot of attention from funds. I think robots are likely to follow a similar funding path in the future. Now I will continue to track the financing progress and valuation changes of Figure AI. In my opinion, it is likely to become an important valuation anchor for the robotics industry in the future, just like SpaceX for the entire space industry, which will continue to affect the market sentiment of the sector.
My judgment: The fourth quarter is a crucial window
If IPO expectations continue to rise, I personally believe that starting from the fourth quarter of this year, the robotics sector has the opportunity to gradually enter the mainstream market view. If there is a temporary adjustment in the market from August to October, in addition to continuing to focus on AI infrastructure, I will also gradually lay out the Physical AI and Robotics industry chain. Currently, the most relevant holding is only Tesla, but I want to lay out more robot companies that sell shovels.
The market is actually starting to show some reaction
Recently, the discussion heat of robot related companies such as AMBA and OUT has significantly increased. I think this is a beginning.
Tomorrow, I will write an in-depth analysis of the robot supply chain, which will comprehensively sort out the companies and investment logic that I focus on, including which are the real "shovel sellers" with technical barriers, and which companies have more opportunities to benefit first. If you are interested, you can follow them.
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