Phyrex|Jul 05, 2026 06:07
Global funds will enter the US stock market significantly in May 2026, but will stagnate from June onwards
The previous articles discussed the outflow of funds from US technology stocks, the reduction of hedge fund holdings, and retail investors buying in when prices fell. Now there is another set of more macro level data, which can be linked together to look at these things.
According to data from EPFR and Goldman Sachs, the inflow of global funds into US stocks has been strong since 2026. Until May, overseas funds almost accelerated their inflow into the US stock market, with a cumulative inflow of nearly 2.4% AUM, significantly higher than the historical average from 2002 to 2025 and reaching the high point of the historical period.
To put it simply, in the first five months of this year, global funds bought US stocks very aggressively, and there is strong financial support behind this round of rise in US stocks.
But the key change occurred in June. The originally upward flow of funds did not continue to surge significantly after June, but instead went from rapid growth to stagnation, and even experienced a slight decline.
This can also be viewed together with the previous sets of data. On one hand, there has been a significant inflow of global funds into the US stock market since the beginning of the year, while on the other hand, the net inflow of technology sector funds has suddenly increased from over $20 billion to a net outflow of $15 billion since June. Hedge funds and institutional accounts have experienced extreme net sales of nearly -4 standard deviations from the US information technology sector.
So the current situation is more like the emotional heat of AI and semiconductor in the US stock market is still there, but the most core professional funds in this sector have begun to withdraw.
Of course, this still does not mean that semiconductors or AI will experience a significant decline, as the inflow of overseas funds has not completely disappeared, and retail investors are even more extreme in buying when the index falls. But this also indicates that the market may rely more on the July earnings season in the future.
If the financial reports of technology leaders continue to be strong and AI capital expenditures continue to be realized, professional funds may come back again. But if the financial report cannot continue to provide strong profits and guidance, the risks may increase in the future.
There are still about two weeks left until the financial reporting season.
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