The most dangerous thing this round isn’t the bears, but the early bulls. A lot of people think the market has been dropping for so long, it must have bottomed out by now. That ETFs have been flowing out for so long, they must start flowing back in. That sentiment has been so bad, it must be time for a reversal. But the market’s favorite thing to do is this: make the bears uncomfortable, and make the bulls despair. Over the past half month, bitcoin:native went from panic selling to an oversold rebound, and suddenly, many people started talking about the bull market returning. But if you zoom out a bit, you’ll see that the things that truly change trends have barely shifted. ETF funds haven’t consistently flowed back in, new capital hasn’t re-entered the market, altcoin profitability hasn’t recovered. The market has simply gone from extreme pessimism to being slightly less pessimistic. A lot of people mistake a rebound for a reversal. A lot of people mistake hope for a signal. But in a cycle, the most expensive mistake is often believing the turning point has arrived too early, because the real bottom is never formed by a rally—it’s ground out through repeated doubt. That’s why what I’m watching most closely right now isn’t how much BTC has risen, but when the capital starts coming back. Because price drives sentiment, but capital drives trends. And cycles determine the ultimate direction. The cruelest part of the market is this: The bottom always forms when most people don’t believe it, and the top always appears when most people are fully convinced.