BTC、 What do you think of gold? First rebound in July, then find the real bottom from August to October Yesterday's summary stated that when an asset is widely criticized by the media, many bad news are often already reflected in the price in advance. Recently, gold and BTC have been like this. The more at this time, the more attention should be paid to it. Let's talk about macro first This non farm payroll data is even weaker than market expectations. The latest release of non farm payroll employment in the United States is only 57000, far below the market expectation of 110000 and significantly lower than the previous value of 172000. This indicates that the US job market is slowing down and economic growth is starting to cool down. Although this does not mean that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates immediately, at least the pressure for further rate hikes has decreased. After the data was released, the US dollar and US Treasury yields fell synchronously. For both gold and Bitcoin, this is a favorable macro environment. So I think that in the coming period, both gold and BTC are worth continuing to pay attention to. Then BTC: Still looking for rebound in July BTC has been following the same path as previously shared during this period. When I replied to my Twitter friend's comment before, I mentioned that the area below $58000 belongs to a relatively obvious liquidity zone. The main force first breaks the stop loss below 58000 and then quickly recovers. This trend is a continuous cleaning of leverage, breaking long stop losses, and then quickly recovering after a false break in stop losses. So the goal I set at that time was: The first target is $61000 Second objective: 64000-65000 US dollars The third target is around $68000 The first goal has been achieved so far. The highest price has rebounded to around $62400. Why do we first look at the ultimate goal of rebounding at 64000-65000, with a maximum of 68000 (Figure 1)? There are several main reasons for this Firstly, I believe that there is a high probability of another rebound in the US stock market in July, and BTC is usually highly correlated with risk appetite in the US stock market, so it is expected to benefit simultaneously. Secondly, currently Coinbase Premium remains negative. This indicates that the US spot funds have not been chasing the rise crazily, and many retail investors are still in a state of cutting meat or watching. Thirdly, from the Binance Liquidity Heatmap, the maximum liquidity below is concentrated around $60500, while the maximum liquidity above is concentrated around $67500. Additionally, there happens to be a noticeable FVG gap around 68000. For the main force, there is liquidity both above and below, and the price often moves towards the direction of lower resistance, first down 60500 and then up to 68000. It's easy to say, but there will be many fluctuations in the middle, hitting stop loss back and forth, probably a volatile upward trend. So the area between 67000-68000 still has some appeal, and it is highly likely that this gap will be filled in the end. Looking back at the past few trends, it can be found that the main force often fills the gap above and breaks through key pressure levels to attract chasing funds, and then quickly falls back into the range, entering the downward trend again. This script has appeared more than once, so if this rebound reaches around 68000, I will also focus on whether similar fake breakout signals will appear again. The first two fake breakthroughs were 94500, which broke through to 98200 and then quickly fell. The fake breakthrough of 79200 reached 83000 and then fluctuated at a high level for a while because there were too many short sellers, and then smoothly fell. If we can retrace around 60500 and successfully hold on, I believe there is still a chance for the market to continue advancing towards 64000-65000, with the limit being around 68000. Of course, it is also necessary to consider other indicators such as funding rate, open interest, and CVD. If BTC rebounds to around 67000-68000 and the Funding Rate continues to turn positive and the Open Interest rapidly increases, it indicates that more and more people are starting to leverage and go long. At this time, we should be more vigilant because the main force may use fake breakthroughs to complete long liquidation. But if the price continues to rise and Funding remains low or even negative, while Open Interest growth is not fast and CVD continues to strengthen, it indicates that it is mainly spot funds and large funds buying, and bears are continuously shorting. This structure is often more prone to further short selling or high volatility that erodes bearish patience. My mid-term perspective has not changed I still think July or even mid August is more bullish. If the market goes smoothly, BTC has the opportunity to challenge $67000-68000. But after entering the months of August to October, I still tend to believe that the market will re-enter the bottom building stage. If we really break through the liquidity around 67500 in the future, complete another fake breakthrough, and then follow the US stock market into adjustment, I wouldn't be surprised. The long-term layout area that I am currently truly interested in is still around $50000 to $55000. If a weekly level Bullish Divergence is formed there in the future, and market sentiment drops to freezing point and the funding rate returns to extremely negative, I would actually believe that that is the best long-term layout opportunity with a risk return ratio. If you want to make a trade, there are actually two places: the short selling opportunity after the fake breakout of 67200 to 68000 at the top, and the long selling opportunity after the fake breakout of 57500 to 50000-55000 at the bottom. These two are considered high win rate opportunities. Finally, let's talk about gold (Figure 2) Recently, the trend of gold is somewhat similar to that of BTC. From a technical perspective, gold is still running below the daily downtrend line, so in the medium to long term, I won't start looking at a bull market just because of a one-day rebound. However, there are two positive signals worth noting. Firstly, MACD and RSI have begun to exhibit daily level Bullish Divergence. Indicating that the bearish momentum is gradually weakening. Secondly, gold related stocks have been significantly more resilient than spot gold in recent times and have not continued to hit new lows. Usually, this situation means that funds have already begun to lay out the gold industry chain in advance. If I can break through the current downward trend line in the future, I will first see around $4400. Of course, I will remain patient and not rush to chase high until I truly break through. If the technical bear market from August to October further releases risks, the long-term layout positions that I am more interested in are around the first target level of $3900 and, in extreme cases, around the second target level of $3500. summary The non farm sector is weakening, which is a favorable macro environment for both gold and BTC. In the short term, I am still more optimistic about the continued rebound of risk assets in July. But looking at the medium-term, I won't assume that a new bull market has started just because of a rebound. It's highly likely that the bull market will only start after the last dip. What really needs to be paid attention to is market sentiment, funding rate, and capital flow. Many times, great opportunities do not arise when everyone is optimistic, but quietly when everyone feels hopeless.