[Analysis: Target range for this round of Bitcoin's weak rebound is $64,000 to $68,000, with $70,000 as the short-term rebound ceiling in a bear market] BlockBeats news, July 4, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that the average cost of Bitcoin's short-term holders (positions held for less than 1 month and less than 3 months) is currently concentrated in the $64,000 to $68,000 range. The price needs to repeatedly attempt breakthroughs to gradually align the cost trend line, but each breakthrough attempt triggers some weak holders to cash out when their unrealized losses turn into unrealized gains. This "breakthrough—resistance—pullback—breakthrough again" cycle is a necessary process for forming a bottom consensus. Based on this, the analyst divides the rebound expectations into three tiers: $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to the aforementioned cost logic of holders, while $70,000 represents the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) level, which is often regarded as the ceiling for bear market rebounds. In the on-chain data analysis framework, STH-RP serves as the emotional bull-bear dividing line, with every trend reversal beginning with the final breakthrough of this line. The analyst personally leans toward this round being a "weak rebound," expecting it to reach the $64,000 to $68,000 range. If it unexpectedly breaks through $70,000, it would be defined as a strong rebound, at which point partial profit-taking on existing positions should be considered to leave room for subsequent adjustments. Option market data simultaneously shows that market makers are in a positive Gamma state near $62,000, and their hedging behavior when the price approaches this level will suppress volatility. After a breakthrough, the next positive Gamma level happens to fall between $66,000 and $68,000, which also constitutes a resistance zone. [Original link]