Don’t rush to call it a bull market just yet. This rebound looks more like: Short covering + short-term active buying pushing prices up + risk appetite recovery, but it’s not enough to prove a new major rally has started. Right now, there’s only one key level: 63,000. BTC is showing relatively strong consolidation above 62,000, which indicates there is indeed short-term buying interest. But as it approaches the 62,700-63,000 range, active buying has already started to weaken. If this is a true breakout, buying pressure should increase as the price breaks through key resistance, not weaken before reaching it. Looking at derivatives data, OI hasn’t surged significantly, and funding rates aren’t overly crowded. This suggests that this rally isn’t a typical case of new longs aggressively chasing the price. Instead, it’s more like some shorts being forced to close their positions, combined with a bit of short-term active buying. So, it’s not just about how much the price has risen—it’s about whether people are still willing to buy after the price goes up. Key levels to watch: - 62,740-62,800: Short-term sell wall - 62,950-63,050: First key resistance, the dividing line between a real breakout and a fakeout - 63,500-63,800: First extension target after a breakout - 64,200-64,600: Strong resistance zone if shorts continue to get squeezed - 62,500-62,380: Short-term consolidation pivot - 62,000-62,050: Near-term strength/weakness boundary - 61,500-61,300: 24-hour high-volume trading zone, must hold above this level - 60,000-60,500: Major psychological support; if it falls back here, the rebound is essentially invalidated My take is simple: If 63,000 doesn’t hold, this is just a rebound. If 63,000 breaks with volume and holds above without falling back, then we can start talking about a potential rally. But if it approaches 63,000 and volume shrinks, active buying slows down, or OI suddenly spikes, be cautious—it’s more likely a bull trap than a trend reversal. The worst move right now is to chase longs emotionally below 62,800-63,000. The best opportunities aren’t about gambling on direction before a breakout, but about following the money after key levels are confirmed. The easiest way to lose money in the market isn’t during a drop—it’s when you mistake a rebound for a reversal.