Murphy|7月 04, 2026 04:06
As we discussed yesterday, the current average cost of short-term chips (<1 month and <3 months) is roughly between $64,000-$68,000. For the cost trend line to gradually form a “consolidation,” the price must repeatedly attempt to break through.
At the same time, during these breakout attempts, there will be concentrated selling pressure from some weak holders cashing out when their floating losses turn into floating profits. This leads to a cycle of “breakthrough - resistance - pullback - breakthrough again - resistance again…”
This is also a necessary process for forming bottom consensus.
So, my personal expectations for the current rebound are roughly divided into three levels: $64,000, $68,000, and $70,000. The first two levels align with the logic mentioned above, while the last level corresponds to the STH-RP position, which is often seen as the ceiling for bear market rebounds.
A rebound within the $64,000-$68,000 range is considered weak, while breaking above $70,000 would be a strong rebound. From the perspective of on-chain data analysts, STH-RP is the emotional dividing line between bull and bear markets. Every trend reversal begins with the final breakthrough of STH-RP.
Personally, I lean more toward this being a “weak rebound.” Of course, if it turns out to be a strong rebound, I might consider partially taking profits from my current positions to leave more room for adjustments later.
Currently, based on options market data, market makers are in a positive Gamma state around $62,000. Therefore, when BTC’s price approaches this level, market makers’ hedging activities will suppress price volatility.
If it breaks above $62,000, the next positive Gamma zone happens to be between $66,000-$68,000, which will similarly act as a suppressive force (resistance zone).
The above is just my personal opinion and not investment advice. Friends, please refer to it rationally and make your own trading plans.
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