"The FOMC minutes on July 8 might be more important than the June rate decision itself. Why? Because the June 17 meeting was already clear-cut—the federal funds rate target range was maintained at 3.50%–3.75%, with a unanimous 12–0 vote. Plus, since Waller took office and weakened forward guidance, the significance of the meeting minutes has been amplified. The market is now eager to understand how the Fed is internally rebalancing risk weights. The minutes will reveal the answer, specifically why the Fed is holding rates steady: - The Fed believes the current rate is already sufficiently high. - The Fed wants to wait for more data before deciding on the next steps. Personally, I lean toward the latter. The tail-end risk of rate hikes is still present, and Waller still plans to keep rate hikes as a tool in hand. Oil price risks have eased, so the next step is to truly address the economic issues within the U.S." #FOMC #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Economy