小龙先生|7月 04, 2026 00:07
Latest Bitcoin Market Quick Report: A Clean Breakthrough at 62400, ETFs Turning Positive and Inflow, How Far Can the Rebound Go? 】
Dear friends, BTC has been pushing from above 57800 to today's highest rebound point of 62980. The last line of defense for the short position at 62400 was cleanly breached. Short funds have become the fuel for price increases.
At 04:00 in the morning, the 4H bullish line was solid, with the highest surge reaching 62980. The long position could be slightly stronger, but the short position could be weaker, like cotton being crushed to the floor. Therefore, the price secretly rose.
The door of 62400 is open, but don't rush in. Currently, a bullish candlestick with an upper shadow has been formed, and the price is close to the strong gravitational position of 0.618 where Fibonacci retracement occurred
1、 Several key changes deserve attention.
The fund flow of ETF institutions turned positive yesterday. On July 3rd, there was a net inflow of $222 million, ending a 10 day wave of outflows. Fidelity FBTC alone has an inflow of 166 million. This is the first single day net inflow since mid June: although it is only a small splash, the direction has changed.
The guns set up by the bears near 62200 were directly dismantled. Within 24 hours, the short position exploded by $174 million, while the short position exploded by $103 million, which is 1.4 times that of the long position. Short positions are forced to close and push prices upwards, not because long positions are aggressively attacking, but because short positions are weak and constantly liquidated.
2、 There are rare signals on the financial front that cannot be ignored.
On June 30th, BTC deposits on the exchange surged to 49000. This number has only appeared four times this year. The research director of CryptoQuant directly pointed out that the average deposit size has doubled from 1 BTC to 2 BTC, which is a deliberate restructuring by large institutions. The same pattern in history appeared in early May: after that, BTC fell from 82000 to 58000.
These 49000 BTC are still in the exchange, neither entering nor leaving, like a sword hanging over the head. It's not cut down now, but it's hanging over the exchange.
3、 The giant whale is splitting, buying and selling, no longer united to buy.
A medium-sized whale holding 100 to 1000 BTC sold 55312 BTC within 60 days, which is the strongest trend. The large whales holding 1000 to 10000 are still buying, but the buying speed has decreased by 29% compared to June 23rd. Individual investors are currently the most steadfast accumulations, with a group rating of 0.8 to 0.9 for BTC ranging from 1 to 100.
The chips are gradually shifting from medium-sized whales to individual investors, which is not a bullish signal, let alone the beginning of a bull market.
4、 Where can Bitcoin prices rebound in the future?
62800 to 63200 is the next hurdle, and the early chip intensive area is here. Breaking through this barrier, the next target is around 64000, which is the large period 0.382 retracement level and also a strong gravitational level. Going further up, 65700 is the cost line for medium-sized whales, where the puzzle is solved.
For a more detailed analysis of the price trend of Bitcoin, please refer to the article cited below titled "July's' Must Rise Curse 'Encounters Macro headwinds: Is Bitcoin's Historical Law Still Alive This Time?" for a more in-depth analysis.
❤️ Write in the last few sentences:
62400 has broken, ETF fund flow has turned positive, and DXY has fallen below 101. The three bearish pressures are all loosening. But the signals of shrinking volume, 49000 BTC hanging overhead on the exchange, and whale splitting are not to be ignored. The higher the price, the greater the risk of decline.
My personal suggestion is not to chase too much, you can wait for the callback to be in place before taking a light long position. We can also let 62800-63200 produce the results first. Verify whether the ETF continues to flow in first. The sword is still overhead, wait for it to fall or be taken away before deciding its direction.
Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis Bitcoin Market Analysis
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink