Phyrex|7月 03, 2026 14:34
The South Korean stock market goes from heaven to hell day by day - the index is rising, and the volatility is also increasing
Today, I saw a message from my friend @ alpha_gege saying, 'Just look at the Korean stock market and you'll know, heaven and hell every day, circuit breakers every day.' I just remembered writing a tweet about Korean retail investor financing last week, and today I searched for some other information. After this search, I saw why it's like heaven and hell every day.
Today's main focus is on the data of KOSPI and KOSPI VIX.
KOSPI is the core index of the South Korean stock market, which can be understood as the South Korean version of the S&P 500 or the CSI 300, reflecting the overall performance of major listed companies in South Korea.
The KOSPI VIX is a volatility index for the Korean market (similar to the VIX of the US stock market), mainly reflecting the market's expectations for the future volatility of the KOSPI 200. Simply put, KOSPI represents price direction, while KOSPI VIX represents market expected volatility.
The current data shows that while KOSPI continues to rise, KOSPI VIX is also at a very high level.
Under normal circumstances, if an index rise is accompanied by a decrease in volatility, it indicates that the market is rising in a more stable environment. But this round in South Korea is not like that. While the index is rising, the volatility is also high, which means that the market price is rising, but the trading volatility is also increasing.
This will be clearer when viewed together with financing data. The financing balance has reached a historical high, indicating that the absolute scale of retail investors' financing purchases is expanding, with financing accounting for only about 0.8%, indicating that the financing market has not yet reached the high leverage stage of the past few rounds relative to the entire market size.
The high KOSPI VIX indicates that although the market has not yet been completely dominated by financing, the volatility has significantly increased.
So the current state of the South Korean stock market is like a combination of contradictions:
1. The financing balance is at a historical high, indicating a high level of fund participation.
2. The low proportion of financing in recent years indicates that the relative leverage pressure has not been amplified synchronously.
3. Both KOSPI and KOSPI VIX are at high levels, indicating that market volatility is also on the rise during the index's upward trend.
Looking at these three data together, the core of the South Korean stock market is the rising market heat and active retail financing, but the relative leverage ratio is not extreme. The index's rise has been accompanied by high volatility, and the market has entered a higher volatility upward phase.
To put it simply, the South Korean stock market is currently rising rapidly, and retail investors are more active in borrowing money to buy stocks, but it has not yet reached the point where they rely solely on financing to support themselves. The truly noticeable change lies in the volatility. As the index rises, the market volatility also increases, which is why there is a feeling of rising and falling day by day.
PS: VIX is also known as the panic index, and the higher the VIX, the more panicked investors are.
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