看不懂的SOL|7月 03, 2026 07:59
1/
The most challenging time for investing in US stocks is not when they rise.
But a sharp drop.
When prices rise, everyone feels that they can be long-term oriented.
When it drops by 10%, it starts to panic.
After a 20% drop, I began to doubt.
A drop of 30% makes it difficult to fall asleep.
When the price drops by 40%, many people want to clear their positions.
But it is often this period of time that truly widens the gap.
2/
Many people lose money by investing, not because they choose the wrong target.
But it's about buying desperately in a bull market and not daring to buy in a bear market.
When rising, I feel like I understand compound interest.
When it falls, it feels like the world is about to end.
The result is that when it's expensive, they buy resolutely, but when it's cheap, they stop buying.
This is the most common mistake that ordinary people make.
3/
If you are still young and invest in assets such as the S&P and Nasdaq, the most important thing when encountering a sharp decline is not to predict the bottom.
But don't move around.
Down 10% -20%, normal investment.
If you can bear a 20% -30% drop, you can invest more appropriately.
Falling by 30% -40% is actually the easiest time for future returns to be pulled up.
Of course, the prerequisite is that the money must come from cash flow and savings.
Not borrowing money.
Not on leverage.
Not gambling on living expenses.
4/
There are three things that cannot be done during a sharp decline.
Firstly, stop investing regularly.
Many people say to wait until stability stabilizes before buying.
But the problem is, by the time you feel stable, the price may have already risen back by a large margin.
Secondly, borrow money to buy at the bottom.
Leverage amplifies returns, but it also amplifies fears.
The market can fall deeper than you imagine or remain sideways for a long time.
Thirdly, guess the bottom every day.
No one can predict the bottom steadily.
Including Buffett, Peter Lynch, and John Berger, they do not make money by guessing the bottom.
The real way to make money is to stay at the table in times of panic.
5/
Looking back, every major drop in the history of the US stock market felt like the end of the world.
The Internet foam in 2000.
The 2008 financial crisis.
The COVID-19 pandemic experienced a sharp decline in 2020.
The impact of interest rate hikes in 2022.
It's very uncomfortable to be in it every time.
But looking at it over time, those who truly make money are not because they predicted the bottom correctly.
But it's because they didn't leave at the most panicked moment.
6/
So for ordinary young investors, I think the most important thing is not to study whether it will rise next month.
But think about one thing clearly:
If the Nasdaq falls 30%, can I continue to invest?
If the S&P drops by 40%, will I completely give up?
If the answer is uncertain, it means that the position may be too heavy.
Fixed investment is not about blindly carrying it.
But it's about designing rules in advance, so that when the market really falls, you don't rely on emotions to make decisions.
The biggest risk of regular investment is not market downturn.
But rather losing chips in the decline.
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