Murphy|Jul 03, 2026 04:10
The reason for placing orders in batches is to use real money to test your judgment of the price range, but the result is that most of the orders likely won’t be fully executed. If all orders are executed, it means the market has completely exceeded your expectations, indicating a misjudgment that makes the trade passive.
So, for the funds that remain unexecuted, you need a backup plan—specifically, under what circumstances you should go all-in on the right side. My personal standard for judgment is to look at the trend line of the "cost basis."
For example, in Figure 1, the area outlined by the red dashed box shows the price (gray line) repeatedly attempting to break through the red/yellow lines, while the green line continues to trend downward. This indicates that high-level LTH (long-term holder) chips are being transferred to lower levels, causing the cost basis for holders with different holding periods to converge or align.
When the price finally breaks through and the red line crosses above the green line, that’s the signal of a trend reversal. At this point, you should cancel any unexecuted orders and go all-in on the right side.
Currently (Figure 2), the red/yellow/green trends are still pointing downward, with no clear signs of a reversal yet. However, the cost basis lines are gradually converging, which is a hallmark of the end of a bear market.
To form a "convergence," the price must repeatedly attempt to break through the red/yellow lines, which will gradually cause the cost basis to turn upward. At present, the red/yellow lines are around $64,000–$68,000.
In summary, even without using various indicators to rigidly calculate timing, just looking at the trend of cost evolution suggests that it will take at least another month or so to form a "convergence."
During this period, the price will need to keep attempting upward breakthroughs. If the price instead moves downward, the cost lines won’t turn upward, and the time required will be even longer.
For this reason, I personally am still placing orders and patiently holding my current positions. I’m neither afraid of a drop nor worried about missing out—staying calm and adapting to the situation.
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